Pakistan has experienced unparalleled political instability, partly due to Imran Khan’s aggressive style. He called his opponents thieves and cursed them. His outspoken narrative against the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leadership, and, more recently, the establishment alienated him. The political climate is further complicated by the fact that Imran Khan and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have been treated unevenly by the Pakistani government since being undemocratically ousted from office in 2022. Something that didn’t even happed during the reigns of General Zia-Ul-Haq and General Pervez Musharraf, both of whom were incredibly unpopular with the nation’s population. All of this occurs at a time when terrorist attacks are on the rise and Pakistan’s economy cratering. With the February 8 elections just two weeks away, many people have expressed doubts about the impartiality of the Pakistani Election Commission in light of their mistreatment of the PTI party and its members. The Supreme Court overturned its conviction in the Panama Papers case, allowing former prime minister Nawaz Sharif to run for office again, but Imran Khan’s nomination papers for the election were denied. It is clear that the same elements that now appear to be supporting Nawaz’s party in the elections were behind the scheme that led to his removal from office. Nawaz Sharif is now considered eligible to run in the elections which would support his ambition for a fourth term in government.
Imran Khan’s Political Suicide
Imran Khan has not had a pleasant few years. Following his August 5 corruption conviction for allegedly selling official goods, the cricketer-turned-politician faced over 180 accusations ranging from rioting to terrorism and was imprisoned in a filthy nine-by-11-foot cage since his removal from office as prime minister in an April 2022 no-confidence vote. Even though the 71-year-old still enjoys widespread public support, his chances of making a comeback seem slim to none. Thousands of PTI workers have been detained in recent months, and dozens of party leaders have resigned after protracted questioning and severe threats of harm to them or their families. Khan’s name has been removed from mainstream media, and it has been claimed that constituency boundaries have been altered to the advantage of his opponents. Khan’s own nomination documents were turned down despite being the clear favourite of the Pakistani people. Khan’s PTI party has been banned from utilizing its well-known cricket bat symbol on the ballots. This made it more difficult for them to win over voters who struggle with reading and writing. The main objective is for the PTI party to no longer be able to function as a party, and its leaders will have to pursue their ambitions independently. They’ll employ other signs, such as an animal or a ride. Under Article 63A, legislators in Pakistan are required by the constitution to cast votes according to a party’s direction on important issues such as voting for the prime ministership and the nomination of the speaker of the house. However, if candidates supported by the PTI declare themselves as independents, they are not subject to these restrictions, which greatly facilitates the opposition’s ability to form a coalition by focusing on those who can be persuaded. Furthermore, PTI will not be entitled to its fair share of the 200 or so parliamentary “reserved seats” for women and minorities, which are distributed to parties based on their share of the total vote. Instead, the remaining registered parties will receive these seats evenly.
Imran Khan has been described as a populist leader, like Donald Trump of the United States, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, and Narendra Modi of India. However, in contrast to these aforementioned leaders, as a populist, he advocated for systemic change, employment creation for the young, and the denunciation of dynastic leaders as enemies of the people. He alienated his power base in the establishment by striving to carve out a position for himself in the higher ranks of the army, dividing its leadership to his own harm. In the same vein, Imran defied the party establishment by declaring his party members’ resignation from the National Assembly following their defeat in the motion of no confidence. This was a glaringly unoriginal move that cornered Imran Khan and its party. It would have been possible for more than a hundred PTI MNAs to make extensive use of the parliament floor to put the new Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government through serious hardship. But Imran was left with no choice but to take to the streets following the resignations. He persisted in crafting a negative narrative against the establishment out of desperation, rallying party cadres and members for a confrontation with them. In this particular situation, a grave calculation went wrong on May 9, when violent protests erupted in the aftermath of Khan’s arrest. The PTI was quickly brought to its knees by the resignation of former MPAs and MNAs through TV interviews and press conferences, most likely due to pressure. Imran’s chances of making a victorious run for the prime ministership remain slim at best due to his party’s complete disarray, the loss of numerous electable candidates to both new and established parties, including Jehangir Tareen’s Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party and Pervaiz Khattak’s PTI-Parliamentarians group.
The Return of Nawaz Sharif
The difficulties that Khan and the PTI are experiencing are very different from those that faced Nawaz Sharif, the three-time prime minister who was most recently removed from office due to corruption in 2017 and given a 10-year prison sentence. Sharif was granted bail to fly to London for medical treatment in 2018, but he fled and has since been a fugitive. However, on October 21, a seemingly well Sharif made his way back to Pakistan, where his lifelong ban from politics was lifted last week and his corruption conviction was quickly overturned. Sharif began his campaign to become prime minister once more, much to the dismay of PTI members who had lost their right to vote. PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif finally made an appearance at his party’s election rally with less than three weeks till the general elections, declaring that his goal was to get Pakistan to “stand on its feet again.”
Nawaz Sharif has steadily shifted away from Zia-ul-Haq’s openly religious agenda. With regard to domestic minorities, peace with India, and the grudging recognition of ethnic parties as valid coalition allies, he has portrayed a “liberal” image. His ability to resurface as a major player in the nation’s politics following his removal as prime minister in 1993, 1999, and 2017 has been impressive. But in 2024, Nawaz will have nothing material to offer. His development agenda is stale, especially in light of his brother Shehbaz Sharif’s appalling performance in leading the PDM alliance as prime minister in 2022–2023. The PML-N’s top leadership is dominated by the Sharif family, which does not fit well with the general populace.
The party barely has any fresh, contemporary ideas or intellectuals. Young people are underrepresented in leadership roles within organizations as well as in positions of authority like technocrats, legislators, and image builders. It is anticipated that all of these will force the PML-N to return to constituency politics in the 2024 elections. The PML-N has failed to assemble a strong party apparatus that is both technologically and organizationally sophisticated. The lack of a significant narrative-building exercise is caused by this aspect. The party may lose an easy win in elections in its home region of Punjab due to the unfavorable combination of an outdated technology infrastructure within the party and traditional district leadership in the form of so-called political families.
Popularity Trends of Two Leaders
Despite all of the PTI’s difficulties and its incredibly inconsistent record of governance while in power, a December Gallup opinion poll indicates that the imprisoned Khan has a 57% popularity rating, compared to 52% for Sharif. PTI is still sure they can prevail if given the opportunity to fight fairly. While voicing concerns that the February 8 election might not happen at all, Imran wrote in an article for The Economist that even if it does, the polls would be a “disaster and a farce since PTI is being denied its basic right to campaign.” Imran also aimed at the legal system, saying that it “seems to be losing credibility daily” in reference to Nawaz Sharif of the PML-N being easily cleared. He declared that he thought Nawaz had made an agreement with the establishment so that it would back him in the next elections and support his acquittal. Imran addressed these concerns in a conversation with journalists at Adiala Jail, saying he had “verbally dictated” the essay. Additionally, it was alleged that Imran claimed artificial intelligence was used to put his dictated points into words; he did not compose the article himself.
Pakistan requires a strong democratic administration and political party reconciliation rather than division in the face of threats to its economy and security. With food prices climbing 38.5% annually, regular people are grappling with Asia’s greatest inflation, while Islamabad is drowning in over $140 billion in external debt. Regretfully, political figures use Pakistan and its citizens as scapegoats to further their own immediate agendas. In the tense political climate of today, stability is not in sight. Political parties, distrusting one another, are vying for the backing of the establishment in order to win the next term in power. The establishment ignores democratic processes while it consolidates power, profiting from their rift.
If Pakistan’s political landscape truly upholds democratic principles, there should be an open opportunity for Imran Khan to participate in the electoral process. As Abraham Lincoln eloquently expressed, “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.” However, it raises concerns when leaders are accused of hindering democracy by preventing one of the nation’s most popular politicians, Imran Khan, from being included on the ballot based on charges that lack substantial evidence. Regrettably, this situation contributes to the perception that Pakistan may continue to be a tool for politicians to advance personal interests, rather than realizing its potential as a prominent and influential nation in the region.
